The Soviet probe expected to land this Saturday: "It will fall like a stone."

This Saturday morning, Kosmos 482, launched by the former Soviet Union in 1972 bound for Venus, is expected to fall to planet Earth . It will re-enter Earth's atmosphere after a journey of more than half a century . But where will it land?

In reality, it's impossible to be specific, because the crash site (if it occurs) depends on numerous factors. However, as explained on the Aerospace website, the most likely outcome is the ocean.

The potential crash zone is very large, as can be seen on the map below. The lines crisscrossing the map mark the probable area where Kosmos 482 will crash, while the red dot off the west coast of Australia marks the location where the satellite is expected to fragment.

According to the European Space Agency (ESA), the Kosmos 482 probe could re-enter around 8:37 a.m. this Saturday (Spanish peninsular time), although the margin of error is around plus or minus three hours and 20 minutes.

But even so, there are many factors that influence the fall, such as solar activity, whether or not the probe has a parachute, and if so, whether it will open upon reaching our planet.

In statements reported by El País , Benjamín Bastida Virgili, who works for the European Space Agency's space debris monitoring service, says that "normally, a re-entry object is not like a meteorite."

"Objects are almost completely slowed down as they fall to Earth by friction against the atmosphere at an altitude of about 80 kilometers. Even if it doesn't shatter, the object loses all its speed and falls like a stone , at about 300 meters per second," Bastida adds.

Launched in 1972 to study Venus

The craft was launched by the USSR in 1972 to study Venus, but a malfunction in its rocket prevented it from escaping Earth's gravity. It is believed that a failure caused the engine to burn out, resulting in insufficient speed.

Since then, it has remained trapped in an elliptical orbit, a remnant of space junk. What sets it apart is not just its age, but its extremely resilient structure , designed to withstand the hellish conditions of our neighboring planet. And that raises a disturbing possibility: it could survive re-entry and reach the surface.